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Discovering new export activities in developing countries

Bailey Klinger

Chapter one explores the role that uncertainty plays in the emergence of new products or services for export in developing countries. Using comparative case studies, I explore the degree to which entrepreneurs who discovered new export activities faced uncertainty, and what the nature of this uncertainty was. I then document how this uncertainty, when present, was resolved, and how this affected subsequent diffusion of the newly discovered activity. The cases reveal two important dimensions of uncertainty in the emergence of new export activities, and the reasons for lower inherent uncertainty suggests that a heterogeneous, multi-dimensional `product space' governs structural transformation. Chapter two estimates the structure of this product space empirically as the pattern of revealed relatedness of products at the global level, and establishes that it governs changes in the...

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